Future scenarios are widely used to guide strategic decisions, yet their quality is often defined by academic standards rather than user needs. This study explores what decision-makers actually value in scenarios and what makes them “good.” A literature review identified 25 quality characteristics from 18 sources, later refined to 15 through expert interviews and analyzed using Kano’s method to understand user-defined quality. Results show clear differences between theoretical and practical perspectives: while literature emphasizes plausibility and consistency, users value creativity, completeness, and credibility grounded in transparency and realism. By aligning scenario development with user expectations, this research contributes to creating more engaging, actionable, and trustworthy future scenarios.

Attendees will learn how scenario quality can be evaluated from a user-centered perspective and how this approach can strengthen foresight practices.